Everyone knows Thomas Kuhn (>>), at least by name, whose essay “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” (>>) made him world-famous back in 1962. He has unfortunately passed away in the meantime, but his observations and analysis remain a valid argument and still hotly debated in the scientific community. I think that his work not only is of importance for the scientific realm, but, unfortunately, for reality at large as well. Here’s what this would mean.
In his famous essay, Kuhn states that science does not progress in a linear, ever-improving way, as it was conceptualised up until then, but as a series of changing paradigms of reality and distinct paradigm shifts. A paradigm was a model of thought that affected the way reality was perceived and could be explored. The most famous case in his favour he cited at the time was the Copernican Revolution (>>)(>>), the shift in thought and perception from an earth-centric solar system (and universe) to a helio-centric model. According to Kuhn, a shift in paradigms (and thus scientific development) happens when the data accumulated do not longer match the old paradigm in place until then. In a phase he termed “revolutionary science”, a few scientists and researchers are willing to take up the new data instead of explaining it away and to develop a new approach to the scientific problem at hand. The old and the new paradigm then exist in parallel, until the new paradigm becomes the new scientific consensus of its time. This phase he called “normal science”.
The tricky part is during the “revolutionary science” phase, when the two (or more) paradigms exist in parallel. The way a new paradigm prevails is not by consensus in the first place, and not by the proponents of the old paradigm suddenly recognising their misperceptions and conceding the flaws of “their” theory. People in general and scientists in particular tend to highly identify with their world view, the way they explain the world to themselves and others, and usually have invested quite an amount of life time, work and prestige into their conception of reality. New paradigms eventually take over in the course of time because the proponents of the old simply die off. It’s a biological, not a logical take-over. Not very “scientific”, but that’s the way it is.
And that’s the interesting part that is of importance for all of us, and especially right now at this point in time. We are (and for years have been) in the midst of massive, multiple shifts in paradigms, not only within the scientific realm, but in society at large. The paradigms, i.e. conceptions of reality and its workings, we have been acting by in the last decades, do no longer correspond with the actual facts and the actual outcomes of our actions. Take so-called neo-liberalism and free-market economics as an example – the assumed trickle-down theory has never worked; the Laffer-Curve (>>) is a piece of fiction; privatisation has seldom benefited the public at large as it was theorised, but the stakeholders of the privatised companies only; and the way the mechanisms of the financial markets were conceptualised completely missed the possible outcome of a world-wide financial crisis. The same holds true for sociological contexts: a society based purely on egoic notions of its members cannot stand, no matter what the proponents of such a society assert, an issue that has been proven again and again throughout the history of man.
The thing is, whatever the “truth”, proponents of the old and, in the eyes of many, dysfunctional paradigms (economists like Raffelhüschen and Sinn; politicians like Westerwelle and Steinmeier; parties like the US republicans in their actual state) are highly unlikely to concede any mistakes or misperceptions and embrace a new and more sustainable way of thinking. More probable, all these adherents of the old will continue to cling onto their beliefs and belief systems and fiercely defend them.
Why is that so? Because what someone beliefs is central to who he or she is. We do not have rational minds that strictly logically decide on the course to be taken, open for new input and falsification of data. We invest a lot into our worldview: our personality, our self-perception, our ego. Conceding “defeat” would mean to give up that strawman we have built for ourselves and re-think our very being, the very way we are and perceive ourselves. Furthermore, the old is where the money and the power are. People think they have everything to lose on a personal basis and do not know what they are to gain, except perhaps on a general level. They would have to give up on influence, status, comfort, and only for such schemes like “an inhabitable planet”, “a clean environment”, “less poverty”. Taken that and the threat to their ego, they do not have any convincing incentives to change their ways, to question their perception of reality and to reconsider their values and actions.
Coming back to the beginning, in a Kuhnian reality we might be fucked. Change (mainly for the worse) is happening on a faster and faster rate, and we simply cannot wait for the adherents of the old paradigms to die of old age, because they would take the world along into their graves.
So am I talking about some sort of (violent) revolution? Certainly not. Violence in itself is a paradigm of old, more suitable to the obviators than to the innovators. So what can be done? I am unsure of that myself. It looks like we need a new way of arguing itself, significantly less ego, and considerably more intrepidity on both sides of the trench. We need the audacity to do the right thing and to unconditionally argue over the right course, whatever our beliefs, whatever we may have invested. Is that probable or even possible? Again, I do not know.
As I said: In a Kuhnian reality, we might be fucked already.
Labels: analysis, narratives, politics, psychology, reality remix, the last crisis, weltverbesserer